‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Availability.

The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are switching to solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their gas stocks have depleted with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and spokespersons say stocks are being redirected to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being reserved for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been sparked by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.