From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”