How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning Ukraine

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."

• Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
• Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.